Dear All,
2 Posts in 1 day, what did you guys deserve to get this?? Not much really, except im bored and thought i would let you know how I feel about things at the moment in the world but before I start http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6086042.stm ,that article is a good article on how Al-Queda is using the internet to promote itself, Its funny how alot of people think of Al-Queda of some random middle-eastern men in thobes(long white gowns)and big beards, who are illerate, uneducated ,fearless monsters, however the fact that they stil exist and do what they do makes you think how the hell do they learn and gain access to use all the weapons and internet and everything else they do...
So I wil copy a email conversation I was having between 2 friends of mine, Richard Valtr and James O'Donogue, where I asked them their feelings about North Korea and Iran... here are their responses...
Richard wrote..
North korea – little man with a gun. Poor bastard wants some attention.
Iran – feeling wronged by history. Pretty rightly so after Britain and US have fucked them around so much, but still, it has a fairly educated population, so I’d expect better than go in for these hard man tactics. It smacks of jilted lovers: there is no real conflict between Iran and the Europeans or even the Americans, it’s just an issue of respect. Though I think Ahmadinejad (or however you spell it) is obviously a clever guy and he’s just doing it the whole ‘invade the rhine’ way (excuse the comparisons with nazi germany, I don’t mean to go there, but just using the whole thing as a template for how a smaller, less powerful nation can try and utilize its potential in an age of international confusion) and he’ll probably end up doing Iran more harm than good. So, yeah, it’s a touch cookie to crack, because China seems to want to become a superpower at all costs, but still remain all-embracing to everyone. It’ll be interesting how that pans out. Especially given Russia’s new resurgence. Sorry, these notes are a little shorthand, but it’s supposed to be a quick reply.
Whilst James wrote...
nk+iran is v. interesting. i was impressed with the UN resolution on NK because china took a firmer line than i thought they would. it shows that they are starting to come out of their shell a bit and realise that they need to move a little in their frosty relations with japan. i think its far more than just attention seeking, as the regime is fighting to keep itself alive at the mo. its a bold move to come out and test the bomb, but can also be seen as a simple evolving of their strategy over the last 15-20 years. dont be surprised if in the next 2 years nk cools off and gets some financial reward for doing so, both from the US/Japan/SK group and china - they just want them to fuck off and stop making trouble, so after the tough words will probably give them what they want so they can get on with the more important business of developing their own economy through easing relations with japan+US.
i dont really think the iran situation has much to with history. the issues there i think centre around a desire to become a leader in the middle east (though dont know how successful they have been coz of the differing religious divides - you prolly know more about that ass-clown). but by offering a strategic deterrent against israel (who not only has vast conventional superiority, but also has the bomb) would go some way to overcoming these divides i think. i also think there is a genuine desire to use the technology for civilian purposes (as well?). the issue about them being a member of the NPT is one that riles me, because while they have a duty not to use any nuclear technology to build weapons and to allow inspectors in, the nuclear weapons states also have significant responsibilities that they simply dont live up to - disarming and providing assistance to powers who want nuclear technology are the main ones. why should iran play ball if the others dont. given russia close links to iran, and chinas dependence on her for energy imports, i dont see such a firm stance being taken. in fact, i dont think a nuclear iran would be such a bad thing, as long as they have the proper command and control mechanisms in place, since it could actually stabilise the middle east. its certainly no less dangerous than nuclear india who the US is actively encouraging to progress like this with its deals, which again flouts the NPT rules.
one thing i will say though is that the 'rights' nk and iran have are real, and each sovereign state should be allowed to do as it pleases. within reason - with rights come duties, not only duties of responsibility to others ( i.e. not destabilising the strategic security environment) as well as duties freely accepted by those states in being signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (i.e. dont make nuclear bombs). equally the nuclear weapons states (as defined by the NPT) have responsbilities to live up to their end of the bargain ( i.e. disarm and help spread technology), but two wrongs dont make a right, and there is also the question of who wronged first?.
I hope they dont mind me showing everyone their views, but i show them because I think they are diverse and insightful. Myself in response to those views wrote the following...
Regarding china and russia, it will be intresting to see how it all develops, as China is becoming increasingly important to the world, and playing a larger role (the olympics in 2k8 being one example) however i still think the middle east will play the biggest role in world politics for at least the next 20 years. Not so much the war on terror, but more the war on Islam, if you look there are battles/wars all over the world and the vast majortiy have muslims involved, you have russia and checyna, the whole usa vs iraq, Nato vs Afghanistan, Kurds vs Turks, Pakistan vs India(over khasmir and other beef), then the most obvious and most dangerous isreal vs palestine/iran/syria/lebonano and egypt and jordon(if they grew some balls again) on top of all that there is a significant muslim populour in China which wants to seperate in the north west and have had many clashes with the goverment, if all means its going to be kicking off sooner rather than later, and for some it will be seen as the holy war, which it already has whilst others it will be a more geographical or political war, however whatever the way people will view it it is going to be mix, and i have no doubt nuclear weapons will be involved. Who uses them i am not so sure, Saladam Rusdie recently said in a article i read that he hopes Gen. Musaraf (leader of pakistan) stays alive a long time not because he likes him but he feels that without him it would just be a group of extremists/fundamentalist incharge of a nuclear weapon, whereas the way I see it personally is that if the muslim world does get attack there will at least be one country who could help defend it. From this view, you can tell i think Iran and N.Korea both have ligitmiate rights to develop anything as they see fit to protect the country, I understand the US, UN and EU have to help police the world at certain times, however if the people of one country belive in something that surely prohibiting that country of its duties to its citizens is a crime?
I read a quote this mornign that pissed me off no end..
Unifil is meant to act against Hezbollah and not against Israel
Amir Peretz
Israeli Defence Minister
This was in reference to the flights that isreal is still doing over Lebanon, which France have deemed to go against what was agreed, it just shows what is wrong in the Middle East, where countries feels its right to abuse the UN when it decides but as soon as someone does something that you dont like, u use the UN and claim innocence, its just wrong, why should a army like Unifil take sides in this war, they are there as peacekeepers and not as Israels personal army, I dont have anyting particulary against Isreal so dont start on that, its just sometimes the arrogance of some leaders in this world astounds me, as well as the people who support and put that leader in power.
Regarding the Taliban btw I absolutley despise them, though I dont think much of the US , the taliban are crazy, they follow such an extreme form of Islam its unbeliveable that it could be called the same thing, some of the things they do are good, like force people to not lie,cheat,steal etc, however the way they treat women, is jus shocking, if any of you who are knowledgeable about Islam I would recommend watchign a Afgani film called Osama, its a very good film but again only for those knowledgeable about Islam because its important to make the differences between the different forms of Islam...
Regarding the whole Nuclear issue I agree with James, the world must either choose collectively to Dis-arm and (therefore UK and USA forget about building all those new nuclear plants and find other forms of energy) or allow every country the right to do as it pleases as long as it doenst infinge other countries. And when I say infringe I do not mean like when Iraq was close of becomign nuclear in the 80's and Isreal bombed its nuclear facilities because it didnt WANT a nuclear neighbour, that is completelty wrong, and if anyone was to bomb north korea or iran without either of them infringing on anyone else then i sincerly hope the UN and the EU would take a strong line against it. The only country I have respite for is South Korea who is in a very difficult situation due to its historical ties, culutural ties and its own economy and social welfare needs to becareful regarding what it should do in regards to North Korea. No other country should be getting involved i feel, but yet USA are involved in the 6 party talks with NK and indirectly talking to Iran(thru the UN), it will utimetly be down to them, I dont begrudge this fact, in fact I think its somethign that we all have to accept that they are and will be for the forceable future the dictator of the world, they are still the only super-power in the world, and as history will tell you, when any country has been dominant in the world they tend to rule with a iron-fist and they do invade and take terrorites and through their weight around, and I am sure there are worse countries than the USA that could play that role, so rather than be a pessimist its always beta to be a opptermist and accept what is going on and just try working with the current parameters in trying to achieve a more harmonious world....
And there you have it my(and others) brief view on the current nuclear crisis mixed in with some of my views on the Islamic world...
I welcome your comments.
Take care
Asif
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